Prices Up

September 25, 2026

Hey, it's Khem, still only Khem Kadariya in the world.

The thread running through 2026 has been real demand meeting thin supply, and this week the gap showed on both sides at once. Carry this forward: when inventory rises 10 percent and sales still fall 9 percent, the constraint has moved from listings to affordability, and every project waiting on a schedule or a grant is now an affordability story too.

and here is the new video just got published this week. "DON'T MOVE TO ROCHESTER UNLESS..." (2026 EDITION)

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In today’s newsletter

In Today's Newsletter

Housing and Rates Monroe County's median sale price hit $315,000 in August, up 10.5 percent, while closed sales fell 9 percent and the average 30-year mortgage sat near 7 percent.

Labor and Wages Roughly 2,000 workers at the region's largest employer reach a September 26 contract deadline after an extension from September 5.

Stalled Redevelopment The $20 million Terrance Building demolition has no start date three months on, delaying 400 to 500 planned homes.

Regional Investment Genesee County is asked to carry a Restore New York application for a Batavia Downs project reported at just under $80 million, the same week it finished $6.6 million of broadband.

Monroe County’s Median Sale Price Reaches $315,000, Up 10.5 Percent, as Closed Sales Fall 9 Percent and the Fed Raises Rates for the First Time Since 2023 (New York State Association of Realtors, Wham 13)

The New York State Association of Realtors released August housing data this week putting Monroe County's median sale price at $315,000, up from $285,000 a year earlier, with closed sales down to 701 from 770.

Inventory is finally growing. There were 572 homes for sale against 518 a year ago, and months of supply moved from 0.9 to 1.0, still about a quarter of a balanced market (New York State Association of Realtors (opens in a new tab)).

Housing Signals

Median sale price: $315,000, up 10.5 percent from $285,000 Closed sales: 701, down 9.0 percent from 770 New listings: 766, up 15.7 percent from 662 Homes for sale: 572, up 10.4 percent from 518 Months supply: 1.0, up from 0.9 Statewide median: $476,000, up 5.8 percent, inventory up an 18th straight month Average 30-year mortgage: 6.67 percent in August, 6.97 percent as of September 16 (New York State Association of Realtors (opens in a new tab))

Why Sales Fell While Prices Rose

One month of supply means everything listed today would be gone by late October if nothing new came on, which is why a 10 percent inventory gain cooled nothing.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on September 16, its first increase since 2023, and signaled another could come before year end. The average 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.97 percent that same day (WHAM 13 (opens in a new tab)).

Why It Matters

A buyer at the median faces about $30,000 more in price than a year ago on top of a rate that has stopped falling, which is the difference between a Greece or Irondequoit starter house penciling out and not.

Sellers in Brighton, Pittsford and Penfield still hold the advantage, but the 9 percent drop in closings says fewer of them are finding a buyer who can actually close.

What Makes It Consequential

For two years the Rochester story was too few listings. This month listings rose, supply rose, and transactions still fell.

That is a demand-side constraint, and those respond to rates and wages rather than to construction.

Khem's Take

I have said all year that inventory would come back before affordability did, and August is exactly that.

If you are selling, price to the last 60 days of comps, not to the spring. I am watching October and November closings, because two more months like this means a real ceiling, not a seasonal dip.

Roughly 2,000 University of Rochester and Urmc Workers Reach a September 26 Contract Deadline at the Region’s Largest Employer with No Agreement Announced (Campus Times, Whec News 10, Rochester Beacon)

Two unions representing more than 2,000 workers at the University of Rochester and Strong Memorial Hospital are still bargaining as their extended contract deadline arrives on September 26.

The contract originally expired September 5 and was extended with four negotiation dates scheduled. Talks opened August 6, economic terms were first presented September 11, and lead negotiator Tracey Harrison described the bargaining relationship as more than 52 years old (Campus Times (opens in a new tab)).

Contract Signals

Workers covered: more than 2,000 across the university and Strong Memorial Unions: 1199SEIU at Strong Memorial and Golisano, SEIU Local 200United at the university Original expiration: September 5, 2026, extended to September 26 Negotiations opened: August 6, 2026 Economic terms first presented: September 11, 2026 Bargaining committee: roughly 50 people On the table: wages, health insurance cost, retirement, paid time off, staffing levels (WHEC News 10 (opens in a new tab))

The Jobs Number Behind the Talks

The university and its medical center are the largest employer in the region by a wide margin, so what they settle on sets the floor Rochester Regional Health, the suburban practices and the nursing homes must compete against.

State labor data for the year ending August 2026 put Rochester metro private sector employment at 439,200, down 4,900 jobs or 1.1 percent, with the largest single loss in private education and health services at 1,700 (New York State Department of Labor (opens in a new tab)). The sector under the most wage pressure is also the one that shrank most.

Why It Matters

If wages at Strong rise meaningfully, that money lands in Monroe County paychecks and in housing demand around the medical corridor, the 19th Ward, Swillburg and South Wedge.

If talks break down, Strong is the region's Level 1 trauma center, and disruption there is felt from Brockport to Canandaigua.

What Makes It Strategic

Rochester spent a decade rebuilding around health care and higher education after manufacturing contracted, and those are now the sectors losing jobs while facing the most wage pressure.

That is the central tension in the regional economy heading into 2027, and this contract is its clearest public measurement.

Khem's Take

I do not read the extension as a bad sign, because extensions usually mean both sides think a deal is reachable.

What matters is the wage number, since whatever Strong agrees to becomes the number every other healthcare employer here has to answer. If you work in healthcare and a raise is coming, do not spend it in advance at 6.97 percent.

$20 Million Terrance Building Demolition Still Has No Start Date Three Months on, Holding Up 400 to 500 Planned Homes on Elmwood Avenue (Whec News 10)

The state committed $20 million in June to demolish the Terrance Building on Elmwood Avenue. This week, reporting found no demolition date set and little visible change at the site.

The former Rochester Psychiatric Center has been vacant since 1995 and remains fenced and camera-monitored with visible damage. Whitestone Development Partners has plans for 400 to 500 housing units there and told reporters to check back in a few weeks without giving a date (WHEC News 10 (opens in a new tab)).

Property Signals

State demolition funding: $20 million, committed June 2026 Time since the announcement: more than three months, no start date Vacancy: continuous since 1995, more than 30 years Planned housing units: 400 to 500 Developer: Whitestone Development Partners Location: Elmwood Avenue, on the medical center corridor Site condition: fenced, camera-monitored, visible damage (WHEC News 10 (opens in a new tab))

The History Matters

This site has been discussed for close to two decades, and hotel proposals came and went because demolition cost more than any private developer would absorb.

The $20 million was supposed to remove that obstacle, so what remains looks like scheduling rather than money. Elmwood sits minutes from Strong and the Brighton line, which makes 400 to 500 units the largest walkable addition of housing the county could realistically get.

Why It Matters

Monroe County has one month of supply, so 400 to 500 units in one place is a measurable dent, and it is exactly the supply competing for the renter now bidding up Brighton and the South Wedge.

For homeowners on nearby 19th Ward and Brighton border streets, the demolition itself is the value event, because vacant institutional buildings suppress nearby prices in a way active construction does not.

What Makes It Part of a Pattern

This is the third Rochester housing story this year where the money was committed and the schedule was not.

That gap is now the binding constraint on supply, so the useful question for any announced project is no longer how much, but when equipment shows up.

Khem's Take

I do not think this project is in trouble. I think it is in the slow part: abatement, bidding and sequencing on a building empty for 30 years.

But I treat announced unit counts as a forecast, not inventory, and 400 to 500 units is a 2029 number at the earliest. I am watching for a demolition contract award, because that is the signal, not another funding release.

Genesee County Asked to Carry a Restore New York Application for a Batavia Downs Hotel and Event Center Reported at Just Under $80 Million (the Batavian, Batavia Daily News)

The Western Regional Off-Track Betting Corporation voted this week to pursue Restore New York funding for a hotel and multipurpose event center on the long-vacant former Kmart property across Park Road from Batavia Downs.

The corporation expects to cover roughly $40 million itself and is seeking about $30 million in state assistance, with a 10 percent local match required. Because it cannot apply directly, Genesee County is being asked to serve as pass-through applicant, and applications are expected to open in October (The Batavian (opens in a new tab)).

Project Signals

Total project cost: just under $80 million per The Batavian, $64 million per the Batavia Daily News Corporation's own contribution: roughly $40 million State assistance sought: about $30 million per The Batavian, about $48 million per the Daily News Restore New York local match requirement: 10 percent Hotel component: option to add 76 rooms or expand the existing hotel Site: long-vacant former Kmart property on Park Road Existing venues at Batavia Downs: four, all reported at capacity Prior attempt: $16 million approved in 2024, shelved when bids came in higher (Batavia Daily News (opens in a new tab))

Genesee County's Quiet Build-Out

Restore New York exists to return derelict commercial property to use, so the grant is aimed at the empty big-box store rather than at the hotel, and the hotel is what makes the site viable again.

The county also completed a $6.6 million broadband project on September 23, laying 164 miles of cable to 611 previously underserved addresses using $3.45 million in county reserves, $2 million in federal American Rescue Plan money and $120,000 in shared services funding (Batavia Daily News (opens in a new tab)).

Its legislature approved nine property owners for $1,425,000 under the state-funded Vacant Rental Program, returning 19 apartments to market at up to $75,000 per unit and holding them at 60 to 80 percent of area median income for 10 years, six in Batavia and one each in Bergen, Pavilion and Le Roy (The Batavian (opens in a new tab)).

Why It Matters

Genesee County is 35 minutes from downtown Rochester on the Thruway, and for a buyer priced out at $315,000, 19 rehabilitated Batavia apartments and a county with working internet are the start of a commuter alternative.

For Monroe County hospitality, a new event center 35 minutes west with a hotel attached competes for conference and concert business that currently defaults to Rochester.

What Makes It Transformational

Genesee County has spent this decade assembling the pieces of a place people can live and work: industrial sites, broadband, housing rehab money and now entertainment infrastructure.

None of those alone changes the regional map, but together they turn the western edge of the commuter shed into a real housing market rather than overflow.

Khem's Take

I would not treat the $80 million as final. Two outlets covering the same meeting reported it $16 million apart, and the corporation already shelved a smaller version in 2024 when bids came back high.

The thing I would act on is the broadband, since rural property without internet trades at a discount that disappears the moment the line arrives. If you own out that way, find out whether you are one of the 611.

This Week’s Wrap Up

Homeowners Your Monroe County equity moved again, with the median up 10.5 percent to $315,000 and supply still at one month. That is a strong position to sell from and a hard one to buy back into, so run both sides of any in-county move at 6.97 percent before you list. If you live near Elmwood Avenue, the Terrance demolition is the event most likely to move your comps, and it still has no date.

Home Buyers You have roughly 10 percent more homes to choose from than last September, and the money costs more than it did in spring. The Fed raised rates September 16 and signaled another increase could come this year, so waiting for cheaper financing is a bet against stated policy. Closed sales fell 9 percent, which means some sellers are sitting unsold and are more negotiable than the price growth suggests.

Investors The numbers point west and toward supply. Genesee County put $1,425,000 into returning 19 apartments to market at 60 to 80 percent of area median income with a 10-year lien, and finished $6.6 million of broadband reaching 611 addresses, the kind of infrastructure that re-rates rural property quietly. Inside Monroe County, watch the medical corridor, where a 2,000-worker wage settlement would flow into rents near Elmwood and the South Wedge.

Bottom Line The theme is that the money committed to this region has gotten ahead of its ability to spend it. Twenty million dollars sits behind a demolition with no date, $80 million in Batavia depends on a grant round that has not opened, a $315,000 median is set by one month of supply, and 2,000 paychecks at the largest employer are unresolved with a deadline tomorrow. Rochester's problem in late 2026 is not a shortage of intent or capital. It is throughput, and throughput is what the next twelve months will be judged on.

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See you next week,

Khem